aTypical Joe: a gay New Yorker living in the rural South

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Two canaries in a Republican coal mine

If these guys win it’s a Democratic wave:

Two House Democrats seeking re-election faced seasoned challengers Tuesday in Georgia, where Republicans had a shot at offsetting losses elsewhere that threatened to cost them control of Congress.

Reps. John Barrow of Savannah and Jim Marshall of Macon both tout records as conservative Democrats willing to vote against their party on issues such as immigration and the Iraq war. Still, both drew stiff opposition from a pair of former congressmen seeking comebacks.

Barrow faced a rematch against Max Burns of Sylvania, who narrowly lost eastern Georgia’s 12th District to Barrow in 2004. Marshall ran for a third term in middle Georgia’s 8th District against Mac Collins of Jackson, who gave up his House seat in 2004 for an unsuccessful Senate campaign.

The backstory here is that Georgia took up gerrymandering, Tom DeLay style:

Last year, the GOP-led state Legislature redrew the 12th District to carve out Athens - Barrow’s hometown and a Democratic base. The changes prompted Barrow to move to Savannah from Athens, which was traded for 11 rural counties packed with conservative voters. The district now covers 22 counties bordered roughly by Savannah and Augusta, its two largest cities, Milledgeville and Vidalia. [...]

State lawmakers last year also redrew Marshall’s district, costing him about a third of his constituents. But Marshall’s new 8th District kept his home base of Macon, where he served as mayor in the late 1990s.

The district is also home to a large military population from Robins Air Force Base, a group Collins worked hard to court. Still, Marshall’s past as a decorated Vietnam War veteran has boosted his popularity with service members.

Marshall’s incumbency didn’t lead to a fundraising advantage. Collins raised just over $2 million compared to Marshall’s $1.8 million.

I don’t care how they tally or what the numbers are anywhere in America; if these guys win it’s a Democratic wave. if not, it’s the status quo. And on 2008.