aTypical Joe: a gay New Yorker living in the rural South

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Cook Political Report: GA-10 outcome a stunner!

A friend from home noticed I’d not posted on the apparent upset in the Georgia 10th District race. He sent analysis from the Cook Political Report:

Talk about a stunner. While most eyes inside the Beltway this week were glued to the latest rush of campaign finance reports, an insurgent yet under-funded candidate in Georgia who received next to no national help toppled a heavily favored establishment candidate whose runoff coronation became such conventional wisdom that he had begun to receive high-fives from national Republicans and “Welcome to Washington” PAC checks.

Very conservative GOP physician Paul Broun, who had earned his place in yesterday’s runoff by a hair (187 votes) in the June 19 th all-party special election, appears to have defeated conservative GOP state Sen. Jim Whitehead by two hairs (389 votes, or 0.8 percent) in the two-man second round. Barring a dramatic change of events in a recount, Broun will soon take the oath of office to succeed the late GOP Rep. Charlie Norwood and represent this heavily Republican Northeast Georgia district.

How’d he do it?

First, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Broun was able to capitalize on a bitter regional divide in the race between the two largest regions in the district, Augusta and Athens. The Athens-based Broun, along with his hometown press, chastised Whitehead for skipping area debates and forums in the weeks leading up to the initial special election, and warned Whitehead might under-serve areas north of Augusta if elected. The attacks worked. Broun captured 89 percent of the vote in and around Athens, and peeled away a respectable 27 percent from Whitehead’s home base in and around Augusta to squeak by.

Second, Broun proved more culturally in step with the voters who participated in this “base-of-the-base” election. Throughout the summer, Broun attempted to distinguish himself from the heavily party-backed Whitehead by stating his intent to align his decisions in Congress with Bible teachings and not necessarily the GOP line. A last-minute flap over an email from Broun’s wife, in which recipients were asked to let other “real” Christians know of Whitehead’s hesitance to campaign in churches, generated an apology from Broun. But it most likely also created some skepticism towards Whitehead on the part of cultural conservatives who could not understand what was holding Whitehead back.

Third, though it is probably only possible to successfully run to Whitehead’s right in the Deep South, Broun managed to do so. Broun’s more strident rhetoric, especially on the issue of immigration, endeared him to the district’s conservatives, whose frustration with President Bush’s position on the issue is simply through the roof. In debates, Broun accused Whitehead of “posturing” on illegal immigration. As a political outsider, Broun was better able to run as an agent of pro-conservative change, and Whitehead’s status as an incumbent state legislator made him more susceptible to talk that he would go along with the status quo in Washington.

Take a look at the precinct results and it’s easy enough to figure out which county is home to Athens and which Augusta. Whitehead said that based on the “razor-thin margin” of victory he’d wait for the race to be certified before saying anything.

Democrats had hoped that their guy would have advance to the runoff, anticipating their shot at winning would be Whitehead’s self-destruction. Now that’s the kind of stunner I’d have liked to see.