Wednesday, November 22, 2006

The next 50 years

New Scientist asked 70 of the world’s most brilliant scientists for the biggest breakthrough of the next 50 years. I quote a personal favorite, Ray Kurzweil:

By 2020, computational power sufficient to simulate the human brain - about 10 million billion calculations per second - will be available for $1000. The software will take a decade longer, but we are making exponential gains in reverse engineering regions of the brain. As a result, by the late 2020s, the tool kit we use in artificial intelligence will include all the processes involved in human intelligence.

I have consistently predicted that by 2029 we will be able to create machines that pass the Turing test. The result will be a formidable combination, uniting the subtlety and suppleness of human intelligence with the ways in which machines are already superior - for example, in their ability to download knowledge at electronic speeds.

The combined intelligence of all human brains is relatively fixed at 1026 calculations per second. By 2056, our nonbiological intelligence will be a trillion times greater than this in terms of hardware, and will also be vastly superior in software due to many generations of redesign. But this will not be an alien invasion of intelligent machines: rather, we will merge with the tools we are creating.

Odious ineffective sex offender laws

Draconian sex offender laws (Georgia’s chief among them) are in the news today. From the Washington Post:

As states around the country have sought in recent years to control the whereabouts of convicted sex offenders, Georgia’s law stands out as one of the toughest, a testament to the daunting public fears regarding children’s safety.

The roughly 10,000 sex offenders living in Georgia have been forbidden to live within 1,000 feet of a school, playground, church or school bus stop. Taken together, the prohibitions place nearly all the homes in some counties off-limits—amounting, in a practical sense, to banishment.

The very next paragraph shows how ineffective they are. How do we solve our problem? Make it your problem:

“My intent personally is to make it so onerous on those that are convicted of these offenses . . . they will want to move to another state,” Georgia House Majority Leader Jerry Keen (R), who sponsored the bill, told reporters.

Yet another problem? Who it covers:

The residency law applies not only to sexual predators but to all people registered for sexual crimes, including men and women convicted of having underage consensual sex while in high school.

One more:

“Our concern is that these laws may give a false sense of security,” said Carolyn Atwell-Davis, director of legislative affairs for the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children. “We’re not aware of any evidence that residency restrictions have prevented a child from being victimized.”

And let’s remember, you can charge a man for cybersex “under this law even if he never goes to Georgia or writes to anyone there. All you have to do is meet him in a chat room, pose as an Atlanta teenager, and wait for him to say something gross.”

He don’t like Obama

I’ll be driving in excess of 90 miles today to get to Costco. On my way I’ll drive through Henry County, GA, home to Nicklaus Lovelady and the Henry Daily Herald.

I had never herd of My Lovelady or the Henry Daily Herald until in last week’s Top Story Mr. Lovelady blamed Barack Obama for his not getting the girl:

Two years ago I was a full-time newspaper reporter in Illinois covering Southern Illinois University Edwardsville…

The day Obama came, there was a huge press conference at the university’s student center with about 100 people inside the conference room and hundreds more viewing the conference on a big screen in the lobby.

Obama did his thing, and at the end there was segment for questions by the media.

After about five questions from different television and newspaper reporters, I stood up to ask mine.

“Wait a minute son, this is for professional media only,” Obama said to me.

“What do you mean? I work for the local paper,” I said with a crackling nervous voice.

“Oh, I’m sorry. I thought you were a college student. You have such a baby face,” he said with an unremorseful grin.

After that the young lady Lovelady was wooing was woefully gone. And Lovelady was left bereft and unforgiving:

I don’t like Sen. Barack Obama.

He might make a good president some day, but he won’t get my vote. At least not until he apologizes…

Until that time, Hillary or Giuliani will get my vote.

Ah, but Obama is one consummate politician. In a move one could never imagine from Hillary Clinton (but child’s play for Rudy) on this week’s Wait Wait… Don’t Tell Me! Lovelady got his way. (Hint: and it wasn’t the girl.)

Via Wonkette.